Pathfinders: Price Obfuscation

MIT professors Glenn Ellison and Sara Fisher Ellison have written extensively on the incentives, practices, and impacts of firms seeking to “make price search harder.” In particular, the professors examined the role of internet shopping in dramatically reducing search costs for comparative pricing, and the rational response of price obfuscation. Price obfuscation can help margins for firms, compared to an online shopping environment in which all prices are “all-in,” and the Ellison’s discuss how and why at length. In their most recent work, they also discuss some of the risks to society when firms apply obfuscation to pricing.

For airlines, all stakeholders have suffered the low margins, bankruptcies, and corporate failures that resulted from price wars and the tendency toward “commoditization.” For our industry, price obfuscation offers one way to help restore healthy margins, and it’s important for us to understand the economic mechanics. There’s no better place to start than with the Ellison’s work.

Selected Works:

Search and Obfuscation in a Technologically Changing Retail Environment: Some Thoughts on Implications and Policy.” NBER Innovation Policy & the Economy (University of Chicago Press) 18 (1): 1–25.

Search, Obfuscation, and Price Elasticities on the Internet.” Econometrica 77, no. 2 (March 2009): 427–52.

A Model of Add-on Pricing,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2), 585-637, 2005

 

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About the series: Pathfinders of the RAF led missions in the Second World War, illuminating targets and providing guidance for all other aircraft. The Airline Economist’s series “Pathfinders” highlights researchers who illuminated a topic or area previously unexplored or underapplied in our industry.

Obfuscation and Transparency

The term price obfuscation describes the practice of requiring effort to determine the total cost of an offer. Price obfuscation exists all around us, from shipping and taxes quoted separately to member rates and customized offers. The economics Professors Ellison have written extensively on the subject, from early internet purchases right up to today (see Pathfinders: Price Obfuscation, elsewhere on the site).

Airlines can use price obfuscation for the benefit of all of their stakeholders, including customers, employees, and owners.

Airlines can use price obfuscation for the benefit of all of their stakeholders, including customers, employees, and owners.

The benefit comes from helping customers to escape the misleading perception that all airlines are the same, and that price alone should determine the customers’ purchase decision. Using price obfuscation, airlines can assist customers by slowing their rush to choice, allowing the customer more opportunity to consider and interact with the airline, and offer the airline more of an opportunity to manage their offer and to allow customers to help set their own prices.

There exists the false belief inherent in some discussions in and around the industry that airlines’ offers are mutually interchangeable and one airline could be replaced by another airline without the consumer being aware of any difference.

In economics, we use the term fungible, coming from the Latin phrase for “serve in place of,” to describe goods or services that can replace one another without any difference to the consumer. Airline leaders and media generally speak in terms of commoditization as a trend pushing airlines to become wholly indistinguishable from one another. It’s a little more metaphorical and evocative than the economic term. Commoditization conjures up image of actual commodities, like grain and soybeans. However expressed, the concern is that customers and consumers may perceive all airlines and their offers as identical.

Sadly, there’s an element of Borgesian reality to the belief. If customers act as though airlines are fungible for a sustained period of time, airlines may, in fact, come to be commoditized. Because customers will make purchasing decisions based on the belief that airlines are fungible, and are therefore based only on price.

If the only difference is price, airlines will lower their price. If airlines must lower their prices, then airlines must lower their cost. And, eventually, the constant reduction of cost will impact not only on any sort of differentiation. The cost cutting will impact the basic level of service customers expect. And the downward pressure on price will eliminate any economic rents, reducing the airline industry’s already low margins, preventing investment, and stagnating the business. The Airline Economist won’t opine on how far the industry has already slipped down this slope.

There’s a cause for this commoditization, and it’s got a lengthy legacy. But there’s also a bright future.

Historical cause

Who is responsible for leading customers to think that airlines are fungible? In no small part, it’s the airlines themselves.  Via the GDSs, for decades airlines have stacked their offers against other airlines based on departure times, connections, and price. And nothing else.

As the airlines themselves communicated their offers blended with other airlines’ offers to travel agents, and then to consumers directly via OTAs, the airlines created an environment where only schedule and price needed to be considered.

Airlines created an environment where only schedule and price needed to be considered.

And for the customers, especially when that customer is also the consumer, it’s very difficult to measure and compare the experiential differences being offered by different airlines. Unless the customer were a frequent traveler, they may not have a sense of the level of service offered by any given airline. Without a practical means of assessing the service provided, but with an easy comparison of price, it’s only human nature that customers based their decisions on price.

And the airlines responded rationally by undercutting their competitors’ prices. To fund the lower prices, airlines cut costs

If you’d like to pay for a slightly better experience… how could you?

A bright future

A number of factors are converging in the airline industry that should give hope to all stakeholders.

Low-fare airlines have led the way to a pricing structure whereby customers can choose what elements of the flight they’d like to pay for, and which they would not. Although some airlines new to the game  haven’t really applied economic thought or marketing acumen to how they manage and present low-fare offers, other airlines have got it down to a science. Expect to see the concepts behind this pricing structure proliferate around the world. This pricing structure:

  • creates options for customers to participate in their final price, being the sum of the base fare and whichever options the customer values;
  • creates many possible total prices from a single base fare, making the destructive downward spiral of undercutting prices and price wars difficult to initiate (which price does an airline match?)
  • enables, and forces, customers to engage on what they really value from a flight… rather than simply be sucked into the pit of choosing on fare alone;
  • combines these elements to allow well-run airlines to increase their margins from historically anemic to healthy.

In addition to the pricing structure, enhanced media and even Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality allow for in-flight conditions to be simulated before booking, allowing for a better appreciation of differentiated products for those customers who care.

And finally, the distribution of offers via NDC breaks the tight constraints of traditional GDS filings, allowing airlines to express these varied offers and media to channels beyond their own websites.

From pricing, presentation, and placement: offer management, better display, and NDC combine to bring applied economics back to core marketing concepts. And by engaging customers beyond price alone, airlines can differentiate their offers, provide a more appropriate service, and enhance their margins for the benefit of employees and owners.

plane at take off

Price Segmentation: Why it’s Good

In the airline space, price segmentation can allow more customers to get what they value while the airline maximizes revenue. That’s because price segmentation allows an airline to more closely approximate the reservation price of a customer, and customers have reservation prices that differ from one another. A couple of key terms:

Reservation Price: the highest price that a customer is willing to pay for an offer. We use this concept in pricing models by assuming that a customer will pay any price less than or equal to the Reservation Price for an offer, and will not accept any price above the Reservation Price.

Price Segmentation: the practice of setting different prices for customers within different groups when presenting the same offer.  Economists call this “price discrimination.”

Proof:

Here’s a very simple proof. Three customers consider the same offer. Each customer has a different reservation price from the other two. In figure 1, the airline offers these customers a revenue-maximizing price of $30. In figure 2, the airline presents the same offer to the same customers as in figure 1, but at a price that matches each customer’s Reservation Price.

Figure 1:

Reservation Price Offer Price Does Customer Buy? Revenue Customer Outcome
Customer 1 $40 $30 Yes $30 Satisfied
Customer 2 $30 $30 Yes $30 Satisfied
Customer 3 $10 $30 No $0 Not satisfied
Total: $60 2/3 satisfied

Figure 2:

Reservation Price Offer Price Does Customer Buy? Revenue Customer Outcome
Customer 1 $40 $40 Yes $40 Satisfied
Customer 2 $30 $30 Yes $30 Satisfied
Customer 3 $10 $10 Yes $10 Satisfied
Total: $80 3/3 satisfied

In figure 1, the airline has presented the offer at the revenue-maximizing single price of $30, satisfying 2 of the 3 customers for whom the price was at or below their respective Reservation Price. If the airline increased that price to $40, revenue would decrease to $40 and satisfaction would decrease to 1 of the 3 customers. If the airline decreased the price to $10, revenue would decrease by half to $30, although satisfaction would increase to 3 of 3.

However, in figure 2, the airline presented the offer to each customer at their respective Reservation Price. The airline’s revenue is 30% higher and 3 of 3 customers are satisfied.

Price segmentation serves to simultaneously benefit the airline and each of the customers.

 

You can’t charge different people different amounts!

Actually, you can. It’s legal, possible, and accepted.

The following exchange actually happened:

Economist on stage: “Using price segmentation can maximize revenue and customer satisfaction.”

Audience member: “You can’t charge different people different amounts! It’s not legal in my country!”

Economist: [pause] “May I ask what you do professionally?”

Audience member: “I’ve been in airline RM for 30 years.”

Economist: “Ah, then are you a fugitive from justice? Because for 30 years, you’ve been charging different people different amounts to sit next to one another on an airplane.”

Airline RM is generally cited first when an economist talks about price segmentation. Because airlines charge people different amounts for the same flight. But there are many more examples in marketing, like student, OAP, or military personnel pricing at a movie theatre, school tuition based on family income, insurance prices (rates) based on age and postal code, ski lift tickets sold at a lower price in town than on the slope, and coupons sent to select customers in the mail.

The mistake some people make is in associating the practice in general with a few specific applications that are quite rightly illegal. Generally, firms may not use a customer’s status in a protected class as a basis of charging the customer more than the prevailing price. Examples may be to charge a person more because that person is a member of a minority race. It’s not all that easy to think of a time an airline would have a reason to even consider using protected class as a basis to charge more, but no airline ever should, regardless.

Determination of Reservation Prices isn’t easy, but the logical first step — per the proof above– is for an airline to group customers effectively. When that’s done, the airline might use A/B price testing within a group to determine an approximate reservation price. An airline might also consider the use of conjoint analysis to allow customers to provide their responses to prices of offers in context.

In his book Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics, Nobel-prize winning University of Chicago economist Richard Thaler presents conditions under which people generally find price segmentation to be acceptable.

To paraphrase and adapt to our industry, when presenting offers:

  1. Price variations should be presented as “discounts” from the highest possible price, and
  2. Price variations should be explicable.

An example might be movie theatre tickets, as previously mentioned. An adult informed at the box office that they must pay a $4 surcharge on a $10 ticket because they are middle-aged will be unhappy, whereas that same adult accepts that students and OAP receive a $4 discount on a $14 ticket. Each is simply a different way of expressing the exact same price segmentation.

For airlines, it’s not always necessary to display a full menu of prices available to any specific customer. Regardless, it’s worth considering these two considerations when designing price segmentation.

Conclusion

Price segmentation can allow more customers to get what they value while the airline maximizes revenue. The practice is commonplace all around us, and even in our own airlines’ RM departments. Still, an airline looking to improve their customers’ satisfaction and their revenue through price segmentation would be wise to consider legal constraints and customer perception, and structure varied prices as explicable discounts.

picture of tiny passengers

The Airline Economist

In this blog, The Airline Economist team wants to share short pieces of ideas, apply some economic theories that haven’t gained much traction in the airline industry, and identify research from outside of the industry that could be applied to airlines. Hopefully, the blog will contribute — or bring up — some thoughts that will help inform the industry-wide conversation.

Check back soon for new posts!

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